WINTER 1998
The baby boom began nine months after soldiers returned home from World War II. In mid-1946, American women began giving birth in record numbers...altogether, 3.4 million children were born in the U.S. in '46 -- 600,000 more than the year before. And 400,000 more babies were born in '47 than '46!
The baby boom would continue with record birth levels for another 17 years. In 1957, the peak year, 4.3 million were born.
As a boomer, I'll admit it...all of our lives, marketers have been catering to our every whim. As demographer Cheryl Russell put it: "The baby boom's experiences determine what's in and what's out. Their spending habits drive the economy. A prime target for businesses and a mass audience for the entertainment industry, American culture bends to their will."
Think about it from a radio perspective. When boomers were teens, Top 40 radio ruled. As they moved into their twenties, A/C became a major force. Into their thirties, Classic Rock emerged and Oldies became a major format. As the first boomers crossed 40 (and became more information and community oriented), News and Talk stations flourished.
You can analyze boomer-driven shifts in most products or services. For example, when boomers needed their first cars in the '70s, small, inexpensive foreign ones became a major factor in the auto market; when they started families in the '80s, minivans emerged.
There's no mystery as to why baby boomers have been such a dominating economic force...it's all about numbers. There are more than 77 million boomers, accounting for more than 40 percent of the adult population. That represents tremendous clout with marketers.
As long as boomers fit neatly into the prime 25-54 demographic in radio, or 18-49 demo in TV, all was right in the worlds of media and advertising.
But there's trouble brewing in paradise....
In this decade, the oldest boomers age from 44 to 54, and the number of 35-54's is growing four times faster than the population as a whole. Boomers started celebrating their 50th birthdays two years ago at the rate of one every eight seconds!
By the year 2000, over 17 million boomers will be 50 or older. By 2005, more than half of them will. A decade later, all will be 50-plus; many will be 65-plus. Will they still be desired by advertisers? Based on past history, they might not....
Over the next 30 years, aging baby boomers will more than double the 50-and-older market. But it already includes 62 million consumers...a group virtually ignored by advertisers.
You just have to look at radio to know it. For example, here in Ann Arbor, we get Detroit radio. It offers more than a dozen stations that specifically target listeners under 50, and virtually all of them target 18-34's! Recently, Classical WQRS abandoned its predominantly 35-plus format franchise to join the 18-34 crowd as the market's third Alternative station. In '96, WLTI abandoned its mainly 35-plus Soft A/C to target 18-34's as Dance WDRQ.
In contrast, Detroit has only a couple of stations that target the 50-plus crowd. One of them -- Nostalgia- formatted CKWW from across the river in Windsor -- has a weak signal and has never promoted itself in Detroit, yet consistently scores more than a 2.0 share...more than its Alternative "sister" CIMX. But, of course, they're not the "right" listeners...they're over 50. (Actually, in CKWW's case, they're way over 50!)
I'm not criticizing stations for ignoring older listeners!!! They are virtually impossible to sell to ad agencies. Older-skewing stations have been beating their heads against the wall presenting hard evidence that 50-plus consumers have more disposable income and more free time to spend it, but that wall has not come down. Agency media buyers continue to focus on younger listeners.
Or younger viewers. While CBS's prime time line-up has been #1 most of this year, it is fourth among 18-49's -- the demo targeted by TV advertisers. While weak among 18-34's, CBS does quite well with 35-54's, i.e., baby boomers. But Fox gets higher rates for The Simpsons and King of the Hill than CBS gets for its Top Five hit Touched by an Angel.
In a direct mail campaign, CBS is telling advertisers to "Go where the money is," emphasizing the fact that 35-plus viewers have higher disposable income than those under 35. And, in a recent speech, CBS TV President Leslie Moonves told advertisers: "It just doesn't make sense for any of us to place our greatest emphasis on younger adults when the leading edge of the baby boom generation has joined CBS in reaching the half-century mark."
It may not make sense, but even Moonves admits that progress toward acceptance of CBS's mainly over-35 audience has been "glacial."
That's why Detroit has three Alternative stations (and only one Oldies station, only one A/C). And that's why there are so many Friends clones on TV.
Don't blame radio. Or TV. They're giving their media-buying customers what they want -- 25-54, 18-49, or even younger demos.
There is a lot working against the acceptance of 50-plus as a target for advertisers. One factor is the perception that older consumers are "set in their ways"...fixed in their brand preferences.
On the other hand, baby boomers have been the most experimental generation in recent history.
A bigger factor may be the Melrose Place-aged crowd working at advertising agencies. As advertising veteran Richard Lee said: "They're more comfortable creating ads for consumers like themselves." Lee thinks that boomers hitting 50 will heighten recognition that "we have a disconnection between where the advertising is focused and where the money is."
In the next 25 years, the ranks of 50-plus consumers will swell to 115 million. That would seem to present an opportunity for radio stations that would "dare" to target older listeners.
For example, we're finding Oldies is mainly a 45-54 format at this point, and it will age with those listeners. With so many A/C's emphasizing pop alternative, and so many Country stations emphasizing the "hot," the "young" and the "new," Oldies stations could increasingly become the sole source of palatable music for boomers.
The question is: Will that merely make Oldies our generation's version of Music Of Your Life? Or something bigger?
Media buyers couldn't ignore all those baby boomers.... Could they???